Judge Paul K. Holmes III — Federal Sentencing Patterns

U.S. District Judge Paul K. Holmes III sits in the Western District of Arkansas (WDAR) and granted a downward variance in 193 of 391 federal sentencings (49.4%) from FY2012–FY2024. This page shows aggregate sentencing patterns for Judge Paul K. Holmes III, including the most common reasons cited on the Statement of Reasons (SOR) for granting a downward variance.

Top reasons Judge Paul K. Holmes III grants downward variances

Reasons included across all guideline chapters (193 below-guideline cases out of 391 cases identified)

ReasonCasesAvg % Below Min
  1. 1.Criminal History Issues (aggregated reason)133-46.7%
  2. 2.Reduce Disparity (aggregated reason)92-43.1%
  3. 3.(5K2.0) General aggravating or mitigating circumstance91-47.8%
  4. 4.(5H1.4) Drug dependence and alcohol abuse47-37.0%
  5. 5.(5H1.6) Family ties and responsibilities44-56.0%
  6. 6.(5H1.5) Previous employment record36-62.1%
  7. 7.(5H1.1) Age (Defendant's youth or old age)33-56.3%
  8. 8.Avoid unwarranted sentencing disparities among defendants30-48.1%
  9. 9.Mule/Role in the offense30-42.3%
  10. 10.Mental and Emotional Conditions (aggregated reason)21-51.5%

Zone D sentencing variance — Judge Paul K. Holmes III

Imprisonment-only recommended sentencing zone (offense level 14+ at any criminal history). Of Judge Paul K. Holmes III's 334 Zone D sentencings, 164 (49.1%) fell below range.

Zone D · imprisonment recommended334 cases
  • Within range
    155(46.4%)
  • Below range
    164(49.1%)
    avg −39.7% below min
  • Above range
    15(4.5%)
    avg +32.0% above max

Need case-level analysis for Judge Paul K. Holmes III?

Want to see what those 193 below-guideline cases actually looked like? Just Metrics shows you the actual matched cases — same judge, same guideline chapter, same guideline range — and tells you what they did.

Just Metrics also surfaces Judge Paul K. Holmes III's trial tax (sentences after trial vs. plea) and the average §5K1.1 cooperation discount.

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