Judge Timothy J. Kelly — Federal Sentencing Patterns

U.S. District Judge Timothy J. Kelly sits in the District of Columbia (DDC) and granted a downward variance in 27 of 67 federal sentencings (40.3%) from FY2018–FY2025. This page shows aggregate sentencing patterns for Judge Timothy J. Kelly, including the most common reasons cited on the Statement of Reasons (SOR) for granting a downward variance.

Top reasons Judge Timothy J. Kelly grants downward variances

Reasons included across all guideline chapters (27 below-guideline cases out of 67 cases identified)

ReasonCasesAvg % Below Min
  1. 1.Early Plea8-21.4%
  2. 2.Criminal History Issues (aggregated reason)7-26.8%
  3. 3.Mental and Emotional Conditions (aggregated reason)4-33.7%
  4. 4.Reduce Disparity (aggregated reason)4-32.4%
  5. 5.Acceptance of responsibility3-30.2%
  6. 6.(5H1.1) Age (Defendant's youth or old age)3-28.8%
  7. 7.Little/No Incarceration for Priors3-22.7%

Zone D sentencing variance — Judge Timothy J. Kelly

Imprisonment-only recommended sentencing zone (offense level 14+ at any criminal history). Of Judge Timothy J. Kelly's 52 Zone D sentencings, 27 (51.9%) fell below range.

Zone D · imprisonment recommended52 cases
  • Within range
    24(46.2%)
  • Below range
    27(51.9%)
    avg −23.6% below min
  • Above range
    1(1.9%)
    avg +152.4% above max

Need case-level analysis for Judge Timothy J. Kelly?

Want to see what those 27 below-guideline cases actually looked like? Just Metrics shows you the actual matched cases — same judge, same guideline chapter, same guideline range — and tells you what they did.

Just Metrics also surfaces Judge Timothy J. Kelly's trial tax (sentences after trial vs. plea) and the average §5K1.1 cooperation discount.

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